Accurate prediction of price behavior in the foreign exchange market is crucial. This paper proposes a novel approach that leverages technical indicators and deep neural networks. The proposed architecture consists of a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), and attention mechanism. Initially, trend and oscillation technical indicators are employed to extract statistical features from Forex currency pair data, providing insights into price trends, market volatility, relative price strength, and overbought and oversold conditions. Subsequently, the LSTM and CNN networks are utilized in parallel to predict future price movements, leveraging the strengths of both recurrent and convolutional architectures. The LSTM network captures long-term dependencies and temporal patterns in the data, while the CNN network extracts local patterns. The outputs of the parallel LSTM and CNN networks are then fed into an attention mechanism, which learns to weigh the importance of each feature and temporal dependency, generating a context-aware representation of the input data. The attention-weighted output is then used to predict future price movements, enabling the model to focus on the most relevant features and temporal dependencies. Through a comprehensive evaluation of the proposed approach on multiple Forex currency pairs, we demonstrate its effectiveness in predicting price behavior and outperforming benchmark models.

Large language models (LLMs) play a vital role in almost every domain in today's organizations. In the context of this work, we highlight the use of LLMs for sentiment analysis (SA) and explainability. Specifically, we contribute a novel technique to leverage LLMs as a post-hoc model-independent tool for the explainability of SA. We applied our technique in the financial domain for currency-pair price predictions using open news feed data merged with market prices. Our application shows that the developed technique is not only a viable alternative to using conventional eXplainable AI but can also be fed back to enrich the input to the machine learning (ML) model to better predict future currency-pair values. We envision our results could be generalized to employing explainability as a conventional enrichment for ML input for better ML predictions in general.

In today's forex market traders increasingly turn to algorithmic trading, leveraging computers to seek more profits. Deep learning techniques as cutting-edge advancements in machine learning, capable of identifying patterns in financial data. Traders utilize these patterns to execute more effective trades, adhering to algorithmic trading rules. Deep reinforcement learning methods (DRL), by directly executing trades based on identified patterns and assessing their profitability, offer advantages over traditional DL approaches. This research pioneers the application of a multi-agent (MA) RL framework with the state-of-the-art Asynchronous Advantage Actor-Critic (A3C) algorithm. The proposed method employs parallel learning across multiple asynchronous workers, each specialized in trading across multiple currency pairs to explore the potential for nuanced strategies tailored to different market conditions and currency pairs. Two different A3C with lock and without lock MA model was proposed and trained on single currency and multi-currency. The results indicate that both model outperform on Proximal Policy Optimization model. A3C with lock outperforms other in single currency training scenario and A3C without Lock outperforms other in multi-currency scenario. The findings demonstrate that this approach facilitates broader and faster exploration of different currency pairs, significantly enhancing trading returns. Additionally, the agent can learn a more profitable trading strategy in a shorter time.

The objective of this research is to examine how sentiment analysis can be employed to generate trading signals for the Foreign Exchange (Forex) market. The author assessed sentiment in social media posts and news articles pertaining to the United States Dollar (USD) using a combination of methods: lexicon-based analysis and the Naive Bayes machine learning algorithm. The findings indicate that sentiment analysis proves valuable in forecasting market movements and devising trading signals. Notably, its effectiveness is consistent across different market conditions. The author concludes that by analyzing sentiment expressed in news and social media, traders can glean insights into prevailing market sentiments towards the USD and other pertinent countries, thereby aiding trading decision-making. This study underscores the importance of weaving sentiment analysis into trading strategies as a pivotal tool for predicting market dynamics.

This tutorial will guide you through the simplest way to download historical cryptocurrency OHCL market data via exchange APIs. We'll use this data to train our Reinforcement Learning Bitcoin trading agent that could finally beat the market! Algorithmic trading is a popular way to address the rapidly changing and volatile environment of cryptocurrency markets. However, implementing an automated trading strategy is challenging and requires a lot of backtesting, which involves a lot of historical data and computational power. While developing a Bitcoin RL trading bot, I found out that it's pretty hard to get lower timeframe historical timeframe data.

We propose a hybrid method for generating arbitrage-free implied volatility (IV) surfaces consistent with historical data by combining model-free Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) with continuous time stochastic differential equation (SDE) driven models. We focus on two classes of SDE models: regime switching models and L\'evy additive processes. By projecting historical surfaces onto the space of SDE model parameters, we obtain a distribution on the parameter subspace faithful to the data on which we then train a VAE. Arbitrage-free IV surfaces are then generated by sampling from the posterior distribution on the latent space, decoding to obtain SDE model parameters, and finally mapping those parameters to IV surfaces.

In recent years, a wide range of investment models have been created using artificial intelligence. Automatic trading by artificial intelligence can expand the range of trading methods, such as by conferring the ability to operate 24 hours a day and the ability to trade with high frequency. Automatic trading can also be expected to trade with more information than is available to humans if it can sufficiently consider past data. In this paper, we propose an investment agent based on a deep reinforcement learning model, which is an artificial intelligence model. The model considers the transaction costs involved in actual trading and creates a framework for trading over a long period of time so that it can make a large profit on a single trade. In doing so, it can maximize the profit while keeping transaction costs low. In addition, in consideration of actual operations, we use online learning so that the system can continue to learn by constantly updating the latest online data instead of learning with static data. This makes it possible to trade in non-stationary financial markets by always incorporating current market trend information.

Having studied and worked in the realm of finance, I had the opportunity to witness and also experience what it is like to immerse in the crazy world that is the financial markets. With the increasing prevalence of Artificial Intelligence, hedge fund managers, asset managers, portfolio managers and almost every other market participant trying to'beat' the market are trying to find new, innovative ways to generate alpha. To the layman, it simply means "how do I make money by buying and selling financial instruments"? Why then is the financial markets such an attractive place for people trying to make it big? The answer is simple -- a lot of money can be made in a very short period of time with a low capital requirement, if you know what you are doing (strong caveat here).

Asset value forecasting has always attracted an enormous amount of interest among researchers in quantitative analysis. The advent of modern machine learning models has introduced new tools to tackle this classical problem. In this paper, we apply machine learning algorithms to hitherto unexplored question of forecasting instances of significant fluctuations in currency exchange rates. We perform analysis of nine modern machine learning algorithms using data on four major currency pairs over a 10 year period. A key contribution is the novel use of outlier detection methods for this purpose. Numerical experiments show that outlier detection methods substantially outperform traditional machine learning and finance techniques. In addition, we show that a recently proposed new outlier detection method PKDE produces best overall results. Our findings hold across different currency pairs, significance levels, and time horizons indicating the robustness of the proposed method.

Bank of China has launched an artificial intelligence-based forex trading signal prediction application through the Refinitiv Eikon desktop. Known as DeepFX, the tool was developed by the digital asset management division of Bank of China using deep learning technology to predict short-term price movements on major foreign exchange currency pairs. "With the unprecedented increase in market volatility across global financial markets in recent months, the Bank of China's DeepFX application is a timely and practical tool to empower users with the insights they need to navigate the turbulent FX landscape," said Nicole Chen, Head of China at Refinitiv. Bank of China said the'Lite' released version of the DeepFX app provides forecasting in real-time of FX trade signals in 5-minute intervals, while displaying back-test results within 10 days. Bank of China added the app is aimed at helping traders, quant developers, FinTech innovation heads, as well as data scientists.